This group of players is often overlooked, but they are essential to any team’s success.  They spend most of their time finding ways to past the time during the games, but when they’re called upon they have to snap into game form in a matter of minutes and enter in some very dicey situations.  They’re expected to bail out starters, and walk the tightrope constantly, and if they’re good at it the team will have great success holding onto leads.  The bullpen for the Athletics really came together in 2012 and became a strength down the stretch.  A mix of firepower and deception, with an adrenaline pumping emotion undercurrent made the Athletics bullpen a force to be reckoned with.

August 2, 2012; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Athletics bullpen dance to “call me maybe” during the eighth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at O.co Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

The likes of Grant Balfour and Ryan Cook, along with Sean Doolittle get the bulk of the spotlight for the manner in which they dominate hitters in the late innings, but the middle relievers led by Jerry Blevins, Pat Neshek, Jordan Norberto, Evan Scribner, Travis Blackley, Pedro Figueroa and new addition Chris Resop will bridge the gap between the starters and the late inning guys.  So the question is whether or not they will continue to be a strength in 2013.

ZiPs Projections

Grant Balfour: 61 games, 57.1 innings, 3.14 ERA, 57 K, 3.23 FIP

Ryan Cook: 67 games, 68.1 innings, 3.42 ERA, 66 K, 3.52 FIP

Sean Doolittle: 61 games, 71.1 innings, 3.15 ERA, 83 K, 3.04 FIP

Jerry Blevins: 59 games, 57 innings, 3.79 ERA, 51 K, 3.83 FIP

Pat Neshek: 57 games, 56.2 innings, 3.49 ERA, 48 K, 3.32 FIP

Jordan Norberto: 48 games, 55.1 innings, 3.90 ERA, 53 K, 3.98 FIP

Evan Scribner: 52 games, 59 innings, 4.27 ERA, 50 K, 4.16 FIP

Travis Blackley: 26 games (13 starts), 88 innings, 4.40 ERA, 61 K, 4.30 FIP

Chris Resop: 55 games, 58.2 innings, 4.30 ERA, 49 K, 3.83 FIP

Pedro Figueroa: 52 games, 4.82 ERA, 61.2 innings, 40 K, 5.10 FIP

There are many other relievers who may find themselves riding the pine down the left field line in 2013, like Mike Ekstrom, Jesse Chavez, Andrew Werner, and perhaps even a youngster like Arnold Leon.  Time will tell as the guys in the back end of the bullpen begin to go through the revolving door.

Balfour, Cook, and Doolittle are all expected to build on their strong 2012 seasons, and ZiPs thinks two of them will do just that.  Balfour became a truly dominant pitcher when he took charge of the closers role late in the 2012 season, and there is very little doubt that he’ll let that go.  I expect Balfour to lead the charge in 2013, and his numbers may look even better than ZiPs thinkgs.  Cook walked a bit of a tight rope when he struggled with his control, and it caught up with him at times, and it may do so once again for the 2012 All Star.  Sean Doolittle has the talent to continue to dominate hitters, and will take his stuff to a whole new level this year.

Jerry Blevins was still prone to the long ball, despite his success otherwise.  If he can cut those down, he can easily beat his projections, but if he doesn’t then his good fortune that kept his numbers down in 2012 will likely run out.  Pat Neshek absolutely needs to face right handed hitters unless there is literally nobody left to pitch to a lefty, his wild deception and nasty movement will give hitters fits, a 3.49 ERA seems like it very well could be a bit high.

Jordan Norberto and Evan Scribner will be mostly in lower leverage situations unless they prove too dominant to ignore, they’ll both take their lumps, but will provide the A’s with many valuable innings throughout the season.  Travis Blackley will be the long man when he’s in the bullpen, but as ZiPs projects will likely grab a few starts here and there, I don’t know if he’ll get up to 13 starts, but 6-8 seems more than reasonable.  He won’t blow anyone away necessarily, but he’ll get the job done when he’s needed, his projections seem about right.  Besides, his midseason hashtags on Twitter are top notch (#canwin #ourbad).

Then there’s Chris Resop, the new guy in the mix.  He’ll be in a similar role to that of Scribner and Norberto, pitching in mostly low leverage situations.  A 4.30 ERA seems about right for him.  Pedro Figueroa will likely ride the I-80 corridor numerous times between Oakland and Sacramento, his projections will probably be about right if that’s the case.

With that, I officially conclude the evaluation of the ZiPs projections for 2013.  These projections are often a bit on the conservative side, as evidenced by many of the numbers expected from various members of the Athletics roster.  The fact remains no matter what though, this is the team to beat in the AL West in 2013, and they seek to defend that title and build on the success of 2012.

Apr 30, 2011; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox relief pitcher Hideki Okajima (37) pitches against the Seattle Mariners during the seventh inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports

The A’s already have 3 relatively established left handed relievers with Jerry Blevins, Sean Doolittle, and Jordan Norberto in the fold.  But those three aren’t without their uncertainties.

Jerry Blevins had a very solid season in 2012, and seemed to prove that he can get hitters out with consistency.  I can’t mention too many times how amazing his Houdini-like save in Anaheim was either.  But some of his peripheral stats can be a bit troubling.  His .224 BABIP and his 4.21 FIP seem to show that he benefitted from a bit of good fortune en route to his solid season.  It doesn’t mean he’s going to get shelled in 2013, but there’s absolutely no guarantee he won’t.

Sean Doolittle shocked everyone by dominating three levels of minor league ball in 2012, going from the High A Stockton Ports all the way to a prime setup role with the Oakland Athletics themselves.  For the former first baseman turned pitcher, it was clearly a shocking turn of events.  Doolittle took his lumps at times, but he also looked downright filthy other times.  His fastball was hovering in the mid to high 90′s early on, but seemed to fade a bit as the season wore on.  Certainly pitching more than he ever had in his life took its toll.  Whether he suffers a sophomore slump, or still hasn’t completely recovered from his heavy workload remains to be seen.  He may be on his way to becoming one of the league’s dominant lefty set up men, but once again, nothing is guaranteed.

Jordan Norberto is the biggest question mark of the three.  He missed a large portion of the season, including everything past August 17 with shoulder problems.  When he was healthy though he was effective, provided he wasn’t walking everyone to the tune of 3.9/9 innings.  He’s a middle reliever and nothing more at this point, but having him in the bullpen as a lefty certainly has its own value.

They also have Travis Blackley as a swing man, he’ll be in the long relief role and making spot starts here and there, so his presence doesn’t impact the rest of the bullpen necessarily.  So adding a low risk arm like Hideki Okajima makes sense because he’s something of a safety net incase any of the three current lefty pitchers go down.

As the expression goes, you can never have too much pitching.  That notion applies for both the starting rotation as well as the bullpen.  While there may be a number of arms who’ll spend most of 2013 in Sacramento, none of them have the experience that Okajima has.  On a team as young as the Athletics, a presence like Okajima could provide value beyond just what he’s able to contribute from the mound itself.

He’s already been released from the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks in Japan, so it appears his intention is to return to MLB this season.  Look for Billy Beane to take a long look at bringing Okajima into the fold, there really isn’t any reason not to give him a shot.

September 29, 2012; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Athletics first baseman Brandon Moss (37, left) receives a pie to the face by right fielder Josh Reddick (16) after the game against the Seattle Mariners at O.co Coliseum. Moss hit the game-winning three-run home run in the 10th inning. The Athletics defeated the Mariners 7-4. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Brandon Moss was signed on a minor league contract last season, and joined the team in June and caught fire.  Over just 84 games Moss posted an impressive .291/.358/.596 slash line with 21 home runs and 52 RBI.  Moss was incredibly streaky, but when he was locked in he was as devastating for opposing pitchers as anyone.  Just about any projection you can find has Moss regressing a bit in 2013.  Bill James‘ projections as seen on Fangraphs have him hitting .265/.335/.486 in 144 games for the A’s with 25 bombs.  That seems easily attainable.  The big flaw in his game is his propensity to strike out, he whiffed 90 times in 2012, the idea of him striking out 180 times or so is a little scary I will admit.  I do have a particular soft spot for Brandon Moss though, so I tend to have higher expectations for him in 2013 compared to just about anyone on Earth.  If he goes deep 30 times next year with a similar slash line to what Bill James projected I wouldn’t be surprised.  Sometimes it just clicks.

Jerry Blevins elevated himself from a mop up guy to a trusted reliever in 2012.  He threw 65.1 innings and posted a very nice 2.48 ERA.  He was still a bit prone to the long ball, giving up 7 home runs last season.  The key to him repeating that success will be to limit those home runs.  His .224 BABIP though speaks to a little bit of good luck and a little help from his defense behind him.  That will probably rise and therefore so will his ERA, but there’s no reason to expect he’ll cease being an effective reliever.

Barring another unexpected trade or signing, that will just about wrap up the offseason activity for the Oakland Athletics.  Coming up in just over a week will be the FanFest event, and not long after that on February 12th pitchers and catchers will be reporting for Spring Training in Arizona.  I can almost smell Clay Wood’s expertly manicured grass at the O.co Coliseum.