September 21, 2011; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Athletics relief pitcher Grant Balfour (50) stands on the pitchers mound against the Texas Rangers during the eighth inning at O.co Coliseum. Texas defeated Oakland 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Jason O. Watson-US PRESSWIRE

With Andrew Bailey in Boston, the A’s are hoping Grant Balfour can help them close out games this season. Bob Melvin chose Balfour, 34, over Brian Fuentes this spring to be the team’s closer. The A’s new skipper chose Balfour largely based on his 2011 stats. Last year, Balfour went 5-2 with a 2.47 ERA over 62.0 innings of work.

He recorded two saves last year, but only has 10 saves in his career. Fuentes, meanwhile, has 199 career saves. The decision to go with Balfour over Fuentes may seem a little questionable, but Melvin’s decision, in my mind anyway, is well supported. The A’s did not see a ton of success from Fuentes, as the veteran reliever went 2-8 with a 3.70 ERA over 58.1 innings of work last year. Opposing hitters also posted a .237 batting average against Fuentes last year.

Balfour, meanwhile, held opponents to a .199 batting average. Will the A’s, though, get more out of Balfour this year than they would if Fuentes were to be the one closing games out in the ninth inning? Our Crystal Ball says yes. Balfour proved to be a rather effective pitcher in Oakland’s bullpen last year and has already recorded his first save of 2012. He got his first save of the new season during the two-game series in Japan against the Seattle Mariners.

One of the few areas of concern for Balfour, however, lies in Balfour’s left-on-base-percentage (LOB%). This statistic, for those of you casual fans out there who don’t already know, represents the percentage of base runners a pitchers leaves stranded on the bases during the course of the year. Last year Balfour stranded 89% of his base runners. Yes, 89%. 

The year before that in 2010, Balfour, while with the Rays, posted a 78.9 LOB% and a 65.4 LOB% the year before that in 2009. Balfour still managed to post a pretty nifty 2.47 ERA in his first stint with the Athletics, but 89% is a pretty high number for Balfour. In addition, Balfour posted a .232 BABIP and a 3.57 FIP last year with the A’s.

In comparison, the A’s saw Fuentes post a 68.1 LOB%, a .258 BABIP, and a 4.16 FIP in 62 games last year. Fuentes may have the veteran “know-how” and the closing experience, but as of right now the A’s are interested in having Balfour closing out games. The A’s also have a few candidates to help fill in for Balfour should he fail which includes guys like Joey Devine and Fautino De Los Santos. So, Fuentes may just have get used to being used as a middle-reliever for the A’s this year.

30 saves, then, for Balfour isn’t entirely out of the question. While I don’t expect him to strand another 89%-90% of his base runners again this year, I do expect Balfour to rake up the save opportunities this year as Oakland’s primary closer.

_________________

Follow me on twitter @oaklandace75 and for more A’s related analysis, stories, and opinions, follow us on twitter @FS_SwinginAs or like us on Facebook.

Right now, Oakland’s starting rotation is starting to resemble a big piece of swiss cheese; there are so many gaping holes in it that it’ll be interesting to see whether or not Bob Melvin can fill out the rotation. He’s got plenty of options, of course, so his job isn’t technically impossible.

The A’s, in addition to McCarthy and Colon, have Braden (coming back from injury), Tom Milone, Jarrod Parker, Brad Peacock, Graham Godfrey, and Tyson Ross as potential options for the starting rotation. These guys will be responsible for helping the Athletics in their quest to assemble a formidable starting rotation on a shoe-string budget.

With that, let’s try and see if we can help the A’s and Melvin in their quest to reassemble this current mess called a starting rotation. Two-fifths of it is already completed, with McCarthy and Colon taking up the two spots. After that, though, the questions ensue.

Braden, who is battling back from injury, is reportedly not yet ready for spring training. Furthermore, it is expected that Braden, 28, will not be ready for Opening Day.

So, the No.3 spot could go to a guy like Tom Milone, who was acquired in the trade that sent Gio Gonzalez to the Washington Nationals. He was also recently listed as No.6 on my list of Top 10 A’s prospects for 2012, which hasn’t exactly settled well with too many A’s fans. Nothing wrong with a little friendly disagreement, though.

Back to the rotation. Milone is expected to face plenty of competition for a spot in this year’s starting rotation, and his biggest competitor, in my mind anyway, is likely to be the guy he played alongside in Washington: Brad Peacock.

Peacock, another crucial piece in the Gonzalez deal, comes to Oakland after posting encouraging numbers as a Washington prospect. He went 5-1 with a 3.19 ERA over nine starts in Triple-A Syracuse last year. In three appearances with the Nationals last year, Peacock went 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA.

Personally, I think Peacock will eventually edge out Milone, who will likely serve a solid No.4 guy in the rotation this season. I’m awarding Peacock, then, with the No.3 spot in Oakland’s rotation for the time being with Milone following him in the No.4 spot.

That leaves us, then, with the No.5 spot up for grabs. The A’s acquired top-pitching prospect Jarrod Parker in the deal that sent Trevor Cahill to the Diamondbacks and he definitely figures into the starting rotation equation. Parker features a low-90′s fastball, slider, and changeup and many people peg him as being a potential No.2 starter.

Right now, though, Parker will likely be fending off the likes of Tyson Ross and Graham Godfrey for the fifth spot in the starting rotation. Parker definitely has a chance to surpass Cahill’s value if he’s able to stay healthy and continue his development. More time in the minors for Parker certainly couldn’t hurt, though.

As it stands now, I’d probably go with a rotation that looks a little similar to this one:

2011 MLB stats

The numbers for the three guys that follow Colon are very small sample sizes, but as the case with Milone, the three young pitchers Oakland acquired this winter have had plenty of success on the minor league level. Once injured starters like Braden and Brett Anderson return, though, the A’s rotation could undergo yet another makeover. Especially if the young starters like Peacock and Milone struggle early on.

As it stands now, though, this is the rotation I envision seeing out there on the field once the season starts. My only “questionable” starter included above is probably Parker. I think he could use a little more time in the minor leagues, and given his injury history, I don’t think Oakland plans to rush the young starter.

What do you think? Sound off below and tell us who you think makes the starting rotation this year!

Follow me on twitter @oaklandace75 and for more A’s related analysis, stories, and opinions, follow us on twitter @FS_SwinginAs or like us on Facebook.

Oakland's 2012 Rotation: Who's In and Who's Out?

Every Friday, Swingin’ A’s will make a prediction about the A’s 2012 season with the help of our “crystal ball.” The series, appropriately titled “Crystal Ball Fridays,” will continue through the week before Opening Night. Enjoy. 

Crystal Ball, what does Oakland’s 2012 starting rotation look like?

The A’s will likely enter the spring with a few questions surrounding the state of its starting rotation. With Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez both out of Oakland, the Athletics will need a few of their young arms to step up this spring and help fill the voids left by Cahill and Gonzalez.

It won’t be easy, but the A’s should enter spring training with more than a few viable options. The A’s did, after all, score a few good pitching prospects in both the Cahill and Gonzalez trades.

Tom Milone, Jarrod Parker, and Brad Peacock are all viable candidates to join the starting rotation this season. Oakland also has Dallas Braden, Brandon McCarthy, Guillermo Moscoso, and Josh Outman as other starting candidates this year, too.

Oh yeah, I almost forgot to add Graham Godfrey and Tyson Ross to the mix as well. So, if it hasn’t become apparent already, the A’s will have plenty of help this year to fill the voids left behind Cahill and Gonzalez.

The A’s might not have the best offense around, but the team seems to always have plenty of pitching depth. This year, like last season, should have plenty of strong pitching performances. It’ll be interesting to see how McCarthy and Moscoso perform this year after stepping up big time last year.  (more…)