Jul 14, 2012; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners catcher John Jaso (27) hits a home run against the Texas Rangers during the game at Safeco Field. Seattle defeated Texas 7-0. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

On the surface this deal is a bit of a head scratcher, not because Jaso isn’t a good ballplayer, but because the price tag the A’s had to pay to acquire him seems a little steep.  Of all the players acquired in the Gio Gonzalez deal last year, A.J. Cole was the prize of the trade in many circles.  The logic behind the deal is very simple, Jaso hits right handers very well with a .271/.368/.421 slash line over 897 plate appearances in his career.  His prospective counterpart behind the dish Derek Norris hits left handers at a .209/.269/.349 clip, not exactly breathtaking numbers, at least in a positive way.

The casualty of this trade is George Kottaras who was designated for assignment to make room on the 40 man roster for Jaso.  Tough break for him since he just yesterday signed a $1 million contract for 2013 with the Athletics.  He’ll most likely elect free agency or be traded within the next 10 days.

From what I can tell, most people either love this deal or they hate it.  I find myself somewhere in the middle.  I was really excited about Cole’s future potential, although he was still very raw and struggled a bit in Stockton last year.  His advanced stats though suggested he wasn’t as ineffective as it appeared.  Once he was demoted to Burlington he excelled once again.  He’s only 21 so there’s still time to right the ship, but he’ll have to do that back in the Nationals organization.  I would have felt much better about this deal had the main piece from the A’s been someone like Brad Peacock instead.  Peacock will be 25 in just a couple weeks and struggled badly in Sacramento, although his advanced stats also took a little of the edge off his numbers as well.

Billy Beane has clearly demonstrated that the organization is in full “win now” mode with this deal.  It would be dramatic to say this was a mortgaging the future magnitude deal, but someone as highly regarded as Cole (Ranked the number 3 prospect by Baseball America) seems like he should only be dealt for a true impact player.  But alas, the deal is done and Cole is gone.

As for the team in 2013, I do think it will help as I truly did believe Derek Norris was not ready to be the everyday catcher.  I had been calling for the A’s to sign an inexpensive backstop, they didn’t do that, but this will definitely help solidify the position.  Jaso is under control for 3 more seasons so he can be around as long as it takes Norris to develop, or if he fails to develop at all.  All in all it’s a decent trade, let’s just hope losing Cole doesn’t come back to bite the Athletics.

No doubt about it the A’s are in a major transition phase in the franchise’s history.  It’s no secret the A’s are in a quagmire of bureaucracy and politics that has put the fate of the franchise in flux.  But when it boils down to it, it’s still baseball, and that ultimately is what brings us all back.  So it seemed appropriate that all 5 of the members of the Swingin’ A’s page share their official predictions for the 2012 season.  We will each answer 4 burning questions:

-What will their record be?

-What place will they finish in the AL West?

-What constitutes a successful season?

-Who/what is the key to success?

Yoenis Cespedes surprised the world by joining the A's, the A's hope he can help them surprise everyone this season. (Kyle Terada-US PRESSWIRE)

Editor, Joseph Lopez

2012 Record: 81-81, 3rd Place

What constitutes a successful season?  While I have been rather critical of the Athletics in recent years for their seemingly lifeless lineup, I do expect the A’s to surprise a few people this year en route to a .500 record and a third-place finish in the stacked AL West. Stockpiling on the young talent started way back in 2007, but Billy Beane’s initial youth-movement didn’t pan out exactly the way he had envisioned. That failure, though, is partially Beane’s fault. He’s proved in the past that he’s been inconsistent with his rebuilding efforts with the Matt Holliday trade serving as the best example of his inconsistency. Now that he’s basically demolished the foundation of his once promising starting rotation with the trades of Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez, the A’s will essentially start from square one…again. If Beane sticks with his rebuilding plan this time around and the young talent shows promise, a .500 record is not out of reach.

Who/what is the key to success?  Billy Beane & the young pitching staff. Beane needs to stick to the plan this time around and focus solely on the development of his young team. There is absolutely no need to rush any of the players acquired in the Cahill, Gonzalez, and Andrew Bailey deals. The A’s are not expected to compete for a playoff spot this year, so rushing guys like Jarrod Parker, Brad Peacock, A.J. Cole, Michael Choice, or Grant Green doesn’t make much sense for the green-and-gold. The young pitching staff, which is headed by veterans Brandon McCarthy and Bartolo Colon, will also be the key to success for the Athletics in 2012. Guys like Tom Milone could, in more ways than none, help make a lasting impact on the team’s starting rotation this year. Offensively, I guess the A’s would like to see some flashes of greatness from Yoenis Cespedes, whom the A’s locked up with a four-year, $36 million contract this past offseason. The development of the young pitching talent, though, should be a top priority for the Athletics this year.

Staff Writer, Jason Leary

2012 Record: 75-87, “Dead last”

What constitutes a successful season?  I would never say I want the A’s to lose, but in the first year of a new rebuild I’m just fine with seeing losses pile up if the team develops young players on the way to getting a high draft pick for a lousy 2012 record.  I’d be able to look back on 2012 and call it a successful season if Billy Beane and Co. can cash in trade chips like Brandon McCarthy, Kurt Suzuki, and Grant Balfour and prospects such as Michael Choice, Sonny Gray, Derek Norris, and Grant Green earn callups by the end of the year.

Who/what is the key to success?  Since I’m defining success as the A’s developing young players while taking major hits in the loss column, keys to success would be players such as Yoenis Cespedes, Josh Reddick, Jarrod Parker, Tom Milone, etc. slowly growing into solid, and in some cases, spectacular everyday Major Leaguers.  Another key to success that’s been lacking in Oakland for several years is good health.  A steady recovery from Tommy John surgery by Brett Anderson will go a long way toward putting him back on track to being one of the best young pitchers in the American League.

I’d love to see a young, promising, last-place A’s team finally fire on all cylinders after a rough year and play well from Sept. 18 through Sept. 28.  That’s when the club faces the potentially playoff-bound Tigers, Yankees, and Rangers and a strong showing by the A’s against some of the best teams in baseball would offer hope that this rebuild is on the right track with the potential to pay off far sooner than many people expected.

Staff Writer, David Spencer

2012 Record: 73-89, Good enough (tongue-in-cheek) for a last place finish

What constitutes a successful season?   A season like this is wonderful in one aspect; you can only be successful. If the season is used properly, you know can see what you truly have as a team and who is expendable. If had had to say one thing that would signal a successful season, I would say a top five draft pick for next years draft. 

Who/what is the key to success?  As we all know by now the off-season was one filled with trades for younger prospects and the inability to resign the one major offensive weapon they had last year. While some of these prospects they got in return are extremely young and will have no impact on the team, others will make themselves known immediately.  Losing Sizemore at third may not have necessarily hurt the offense, but it didn’t help it either. If Donaldson and Sogard to keep a modicum of offensive production going, that will certainly help lessen the blow of losing him. The situation at first is going to be a complete unknown. The three options over there, though, can only afford more offense than the A’s saw last year at that position. The pitching will see a regression from last year, mainly because of the arms filling the holes left from last season just can not play up to the run prevention of last year. The outfield is going to be the best aspect of this team. Between the good defenders that will see most of the playing time, the possible offensive production will be the savior of this squad.

Staff Writer, Devin Pangaro

2012 Record: 84-78, 3rd Place

What constitutes a successful season?  This year has to be about growth and positivity.  With the stadium issue and the team’s future very much out of their control, A’s fans need something to feel good about.  While I’m not envisioning some type of Major League scenario, I do think this team has the potential to play exciting, competitive baseball and if they can leave it all on the field and play to their potential I believe a winning season is not out of the question.  Rookies such as Yoenis Cespedes and Tom Milone will have to mature at a fast rate, and veterans like Manny Ramirez and Bartolo Colon will have to stay healthy and productive in order for the A’s to even smell a pennant race.

Who/what is the key to success?  Brandon Allen.  Ah thought I say Cespedes didn’t you?  If Cespedes proves to be overmatched by breaking balls and is in need of seasoning in Triple A, the A’s have the clientele in the outfield in Coco Crisp, Josh Reddick, Seth Smith, Johnny Gomes, and Colin Cowgill to pick up the slack without an issue.  However if Allen bombs at first base, a position the A’s desperately need production from they will be trouble.  Allen has to prove that he can make the necessary adjustments that he failed to make late last season when the strikeouts began to add up and the power numbers decreased.  He’s not expected to go out and hit 40 homers, but he has the power to hit 20+ and the A’s need to get that from him.

Staff Writer, Sean Davis

2012 Record: 79-83, 3rd Place

What constitutes a successful season?  The Oakland Athletics simply need to right the ship.  In 2011, they were a sexy pick to win the AL West by some, and they came up miserably short.  As a result, Billy Beane sold off 3 All Stars for prospects and we found ourselves staring another rebuilding process right in its ugly face.  Now the team is supposedly building towards contention around a theoretical new stadium grand opening in 3 or 4 years.  But right now, development from key position players like Brandon Allen and Josh Reddick, and continued success from Jemile Weeks are paramount.  A season from Yoenis Cespedes that simply shows he won’t be a bust is ideal, few expect All Star numbers out of the gate, but flashes of his 5 tools are extremely important.  The A’s are hopeful that new hitting coach Chili Davis can accomplish those tasks, and I think he will.

Who/what is the key to success?  Fundamentals.  The A’s showed serious promise in 2010 that led to the raised expectations for 2011, their defense was exceptional, in 2011 that promise went away in part due to major regression in that department.  The A’s simply are not talented enough to make mistakes in the field, or on the basepaths and expect to win games.  A rebound season from Kurt Suzuki is also crucial, he has looked good so far and can emerge as a true leader this year.

Clearly whether it’s looking through green and gold shaded glasses, or the simple fact we think we know our team better than the experts, our expectations for this team are higher than most.  A majority of baseball minds seem to think the A’s are destined for at least 90 losses, and a secure spot in the cellar.  The A’s had an extremely successful Spring Training on the field, and of course those numbers truly don’t mean anything once the regular season starts, but their confidence has to have been boosted by their success.  I’m not expecting a Cinderella story from the 2012 A’s, but perhaps a fleeting glance from Prince Charming from across the ballroom.

Check me out on Twitter @SeanD25, see my take on everything else baseball at Baseball Obsessed, and follow everything Swingin’ A’s @FS_SwinginAs.

Mar. 19, 2012; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Oakland Athletics pitcher Jarrod Parker throws in the fourth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks during a spring training game at Phoenix Municipal Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-US PRESSWIRE

Over the past month or so, Swingin’ A’s has been counting down a list of the top 10 Athletics’ prospects heading into the 2012 season. While the list is technically finished, we’ve decided to review the top 10 prospects grazing on Oakland’s farm one last time. These are the players who should be regarded as potential game-changers for the A’s, a team mired in a playoff drought.

Players like Michael Choice (No.1 on our list) and A.J. Cole (No.4 on our list) are the type of players who could greatly influence the A’s organization. Choice is a perennial powerhouse while Cole possesses No.1 starter stuff. The A’s have a few more impact players who could find their way onto the major league field, but before they do, they’ll need to prove themselves in the minor leagues first.

With that, here’s another look at Swingin’ A’s Top 10 Prospects in 2012:

1. OF Michael Choice: Choice, Oakland’s 2010 first-round draft pick, sits atop this list for one reason: his power. He easily outshines the rest of Oakland’s hitting prospects on this list and in the rest of the team’s farm system, for that matter. The A’s former first-rounder boasts great power, as evidenced by his .285/.376/.542, 30 HR, 82 RBI season with the Stockton Ports last year. There are some concerns about Choice’s strikeout percentage (24.7% in ’11), but the A’s are encouraged by the prospect’s ability to get on base (11.3 BB% in ’11). The strikeouts are a problem and he may never hit .300 in his big league career, but the A’s have a true power hitter on their hands with Choice. He should, in theory, have no problem climbing up the minor league latter. A true athlete, Choice also has a strong arm and solid speed. He’s the clear choice for this No.1 spot.
2. RHP Jarrod Parker: Parker, who was acquired in the trade that sent Trevor Cahill to Arizona, comes to Oakland as a top pitching prospect. The A’s seemingly have a grip on things when it comes to evaluating pitching, as the Cahill deal scored the team a highly regarded pitcher in Parker. Parker did, however, have Tommy John Surgery that caused him to miss the entire 2010 season. Still, his performance in Double-A last year has put some of those concerns over his health to rest. In 26 starts last year with Arizona’s Double-A affiliate, Parker went 11-8 with a solid 3.79 ERA over 130.2 innings. He posted a 7.7 SO/9 and a 3.8 BB/9 last year with Double-A Mobile, too. Parker haters will likely point to his SO/9 drop off post Tommy John Surgery, but rest assured all you A’s fans, Parker has talent. His fastball comes in at 93-94 MPH and features a nice slider and changeup combo in his attack. He’s got the stuff, but staying healthy will be the most important thing this year for Parker. Should his development continue to go according to plan, he should be regarded as a future No.1 or No.2 starter in the Athletics’ rotation.
3. RHP Sonny Gray: Gray, Oakland’s top 2011 draft pick, sits in the No.3 spot on this list for his uncanny comparison to former Athletics hurler Tim Hudson. A lot of people will go on to say Gray will potentially serve as the second-coming of Tim Hudson for the A’s and I definitely see the possibilities. Taken 18th overall in the draft last year, Gray is an aggressive pitcher who features a nice fastball, a developing changeup, and a nice breaking ball that gets hitters to miss. The pitcher is pegged down a notch or two by scouts due to his small frame (5’11″), but don’t let that fool you, A’s fans. Gray definitely has a bright future ahead of him with the Athletics. In 20.0 innings of work last year in Double-A, Gray went 1-0 with a 0.45 ERA while also recording 18 strikeouts and six walks. He’s got a long road ahead of him, but a 2013 debut isn’t entirely out of the question for Gray. His work ethic, great athleticism, and determination could help him get to the bigs a little sooner than expected.
4. RHP A.J. Cole: The Gio Gonzalez deal was, in my mind, the biggest trade Billy Beane made this past winter. The A’s scored big in that deal and one of the four prospects received from the Nationals that has me excited is young righty A.J. Cole. The 6’4″ lanky righty has the ideal pitcher’s body and has lots of room for growing. At just 20 years of age, Cole projects to be a front-line starter for the Athletics at some point in the future. The lean and mean pitching machine that is Cole currently features a fastball that reaches the mid-90s, a curveball with great breaking action, and a still-developing changeup. He’ll sweep the curve against both righties and lefties, indicating he’s got strong faith in the pitch. His fastball, though, remains his best pitch. He posted a 10.9 SO/9 rate in 89.0 innings last year and also posted an encouraging 2.53 FIP with Single-A Hagerstown. He also displayed solid control, posting a 2.4 BB/9 rate last year as well. Give him a few more years and he’ll be ready to help dominate opposing offenses in the American League.
5. RHP Brad Peacock: The Gonzalez deal, as I said, was huge for Billy Beane and the Athletics. Not only did the green-and-gold score big with Cole, but the team hauled in another potential member for their starting rotation in Brad Peacock. Peacock, 24, is a former 41st round draft pick, but don’t let that fool you. Peacock has the stuff to make it in the big leagues and barring any injuries, Peacock should have the opportunity to pitch in the starting rotation at some point this year. He excelled in Washington’s farm-system and often got better and better as he moved through the minors. His numbers last year were impressive, as he went a combined 15-3 with a 2.39 ERA while putting in time with both Double-A Harrisburg and Triple-A Syracuse. He posted some big strikeout numbers last year, too. He posted a SO/9 rate of 6.3 in ’09, a 9.4 SO/9 rate in ’10, and a 10.9 SO/9 rate last year. For the A’s, Peacock is yet another pitcher who could, in more ways than none, surprise the baseball world by helping the A’s starting rotation survive post Cahill and Gonzalez.
6. LHP Tom Milone: Sitting in the No.6 spot is lefty Tom Milone, who will likely join the A’s this season as the team’s No.3 starter in the rotation. Yet another prospect hauled in during the Gonzalez trade, Milone’s name comes in at No.6 justifiably so. Milone has dominated the minor leagues, or any league he’s participated in, for that matter. The former 10th round pick of the 2008 draft went 12-6 with a 3.22 ERA and a 9.4 SO/9 rate last year in 24 starts with Triple-A Syracuse. What impresses me even more, though, is Milone’s pin-point command. He walked just 16 batters last year in Triple-A while posting an impressive 9.69 SO/BB. Despite his incredible track record in the minor leagues, Milone still has his share of critics who attack his poor fastball velocity. He’s not going to overpower you with his mid-to-high 80s fastball, but like fellow Athletics’ pitcher Dallas Braden, Milone will get the job done. In the end, that’s all that matters.
7. OF/1B/DH Chris Carter: Chris Carter is an interesting prospect. He’s been long-considered Oakland’s top hitting prospect, but with the arrival of Michael Choice, Carter’s elusive title seems to be under fire. At 25, this year seems to be Carter’s final shot at showing Oakland’s front office what he can do. The only problem with that, however, is that Carter will likely be showing the A’s top brass more of the same thing: minor league dominance with no carryover success into the majors. The slugger has downright dominated the minor leagues and even posted 124 home runs during the years 2007-2010. In 75 games last year with the River Cats, Carter posted a .274/.366/.530 with 18 HR and 72 RBIs. Still, if he could improve upon his numbers, it would be his strikeout rates. He struck out a whopping 24.7% of the time and did even worse in his big league games (43.5%). He’s got the power that Oakland has been craving for, but the strikeout rates are a bit much, especially for the offensively-challenged A’s. His window of opportunity is closing…
8. OF Michael Taylor: Taylor is seemingly in the same boat as Carter. He came to Oakland during the whole Cliff Lee-Roy Halladay deal, but upon his arrival, he’s failed to impress many people in Oakland’s system. He’s got talent, but he hasn’t shown much of it during his tenure in Oakland. He enjoyed some success last year in Triple-A Sacramento, hitting .272/.360/.456 with 16 HR and 64 RBIs. That’s an improvement over the six home runs he hit in 2010, but still a far-cry from the 25-30 home run power he’s been projected to have. The A’s are still holding out hope for both Carter and Taylor, but the two prospects will likely have to post some monster numbers in Triple-A Sacramento this year in order to find their way to Oakland and on Bob Melvin’s lineup card.
9. C Derek Norris: Norris, 23, is a leading candidate to replace current catcher Kurt Suzuki. Suzuki’s future in Oakland isn’t in jeopardy or anything, but his name has been mentioned in trade rumors. Norris, who was acquired in the Gonzalez deal, has two things: power and an ability to draw walks. Last year, Norris hit 20 home runs and drew 77 walks over 423 at-bats. For a team that’s hungry for power, Norris fits perfectly. He struck out 27.7% of the time last year, but also walked 18.2% of the time. In addition to those numbers, Norris posted a .251 ISO. He’s a top prospect, no doubt, but he’s still got plenty of room for growing.
10. SS Grant Green: Green isn’t the No.1 prospect he once was, or at least, so it seems. The A’s have moved Green from short-stop to the outfield, which seems to indicate the team doesn’t have a clear idea as to where Green fits in. After posting so-so numbers in 2011, Green may need to have himself a stellar 2012 campaign in order to win back some of the lost support from the fans. Green struggled with the strike zone in 2011, posting a 119/39 K/BB ratio. After hitting .318/.363/.520 with 20 HR and 87 RBIs with Stockton in 2010, Green’s numbers dipped to .291/.343/.408, 9 HR and 62 RBIs last year. The 112 point dip in SLG is discouraging, but Green’s continued strike zone problems have people questioning Green’s involvement on this list of top 10 prospects. He’s got talent, but he’ll need to re-establish himself this year as a viable major league starter.

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