Oakland Athletics: Are the A’s Better Off Not Contending in 2016?
At the Oakland Athletics’ standard end of season press conference, Billy Beane and new GM David Forst made a subtle hint that perhaps 2016 won’t be the year for contention. After such a miserable year, it’s certainly not what fans want to hear, but perhaps it is the most logical conclusion.
"“We’re going to hold onto those guys, which certainly creates a gap between now and when they become productive big leaguers. You never want to say where you’re going to be, because you don’t know what’s going to happen over the next few months, but our approach will be to make sure we keep that core group of kids together.” – Billy Beane (quoted on MLB.com)"
The A’s certainly wouldn’t be the first team to sacrifice a season for the sake of the future. Anyone catch the Wild Card Game on Tuesday night? How about Wednesday? The Astros and Cubs aren’t making it to the playoffs because they put together a decent team year after year. They’re there because they were a last-place club for multiple seasons – and as a consequence, scored top draft picks and “restocked the farm”. Now they’re back on top.
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Baseball is a cyclic game. The A’s missed their window for contention when they fell out of the playoff race last year. It may not have felt like it after such a hot Spring Training, but the front office was already in rebuilding mode throughout the winter – selling off players like Jeff Samardzija and Josh Donaldson, who could have helped the team in the near future, and netting prospects that are young and far below the major league level.
Now, the A’s are in the portion of the cycle where the talent is all lined up, but it’s not going to help the major league club next season.
What if the A’s did what the Astros have done, albeit to a much lesser degree? What if they spent another year as the last place team, and then headed into 2017 with a roster full of newly-minted major leaguers like Sean Manaea, Matt Olson and Chad Pinder?
Sure, no one wants to watch the last place A’s traipse through another season of mediocrity, but if it’s best for the organization, then why not make that “sacrifice”?
The A’s are fortunate that most of their top prospects are right on the cusp of helping the big league club. Their best minor leaguers are primarily in Triple- or Double-A, and a few of those players could see playing time next year, under the right set of circumstances. Beane has said those players are all but off-limits, which means that any major off-season moves would come via signings.
What sense does it make to go out and spend big bucks on free agents, when this season’s trades so thoroughly replenished the farm system?
No matter how wealthy the ownership is, the A’s have other factors to contend with when considering the price of free agents. Many big-name players don’t want to come to Oakland, at least not without being greatly overpaid. Beane’s presumed lack of loyalty to even his best players can deter free agents who want to sign a long-term deal and settle down, because they know they have a high probability of being traded. The emphasis on statistics and platoon splits even for players like Josh Reddick, who would likely be considered everyday guys on most teams, could be a strike against the A’s for someone who wants daily at-bats.
Add to that the o.Co’s crumbling infrastructure, and it creates a situation where maybe, just maybe, the top free agents might try to go elsewhere. Sure, the team could overpay – but why? They’re a year away from competing with the talent in their system. A year. That’s practically nothing in baseball time – a sport where a team who deliberately tanks to earn draft picks has to wait nearly three years to see the fruits of their labor.
All teams should put the best players out there on a daily basis. But spending extra money on free agents just to make next year palatable to the fans? It’s an unpopular idea, but maybe the A’s should consider settling for mediocrity this season – and then go all in in 2017.