Can the Athletics Legitimately Contend in October?

Sep 14, 2014; Seattle, WA, USA; Oakland Athletics starting pitcher

Jon Lester

(31) pitches to the Seattle Mariners during the first inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

We’ve heard all of the stats. The Athletics are 28-37 since the All-Star break, 15-28 since August 10th, when they held a four game lead in the division, and 21-32 since the traded their best Cuban left fielder. It has been a terrible effort the past couple of months, we get it.

Brandon Moss is hitting .174 since the break, Craig Gentry and John Jaso are likely done for the season, Alberto Callaspo has a new nickname (Collapse-so) and our engine, Coco Crisp, (batting .199 since the break) isn’t doing engine-type activities.

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So why is there hope for Oakland moving forward? With all of that being said, they are still just one win or one Mariner loss away from clinching a wild card berth. Big deal, right? Well, yes. There are twenty other teams wishing they were in that position.

Sure the Athletics have had a less-than-elegant fall from grace. But they’re close to getting in. According to this piece on Five Thirty-Eight, there is no correlation between a team excelling heading into the playoffs, and a team succeeding once they reach the playoffs.

Over the past month, the Athletics projected playoff rotation (if the A’s can make it to the ALDS) of Jeff Samardzija (1.22), Sonny Gray (4.15), Jon Lester (2.14) and, in my opinion, Jason Hammel (2.20), all have shown the makings to shut down an opposing team.

The burden of advancing will come down to the offense, of course. On Thursday night, the A’s had base runners all night against Texas. In the 2-1 loss, the Athletics left ten men on base, and went 0-for-6 with runners in scoring position. Sometimes, that’s just how baseball works, but with the team struggling for offense, the problem is magnified.

On Friday night, the green and gold came out swinging. The A’s went 3-for-6 with runners in scoring position, and only left five on base, accruing a total of six runs.

That’s the key to postseason baseball; getting the big hit when it matters. The A’s have loaded the bases numerous times in recent weeks, and more often than not, come away empty. They’re getting their opportunities, but haven’t been capitalizing on a consistent basis, if at all.

With the pitching being a non-question, the offense doesn’t have to provide much, just come through in the clutch.

Unlike the NFL, you’re allowed to lose games in the baseball playoffs. In fact, like the NBA or NHL, you can lose a ton of them. In the Athletics’ case they have to win a potential wild-card game first. From there, they can go 3-2 or 4-3 in each series the rest of the way. That’s not a huge increase in production from what they’re doing now.

The competition will be tougher, but there is no clear favorite heading into this October. The Angels may be the best team, with the best record, a solid offense, but their starting pitching is a huge question mark. LAA went 10-9 against Oakland this season, sure. But in the playoffs, there can only be so much bad luck heaped on one team.

The A’s have already had a Derek Jeter flip, a Miguel Tejada boneheaded play, fan interference, and a home series that didn’t start at home, just to name a few. This season the ball may just bounce our way.

So can the Athletics contend in October? Hell yeah they can.